By Mark McGillivray (eds.)
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Projections are made using one of three methods: (i) naïve projections, (ii) growth-based estimates, and (iii) model-based estimates (that is, growth plus other factors). The latter two approaches use differential elasticities to capture the greater poverty-reducing effect of growth in low-inequality settings. Rural–urban rates are based on countryspecific estimates of the rural–urban differential. Specific details of the projections are as follows: • Income poverty is modelled as a function of income growth alone, • • • • with the elasticity varying according the level of initial inequality.
5. • Separate rural and urban estimates are made by using the ratio of rural to urban incidence, based on observed values where available and modelled (as a function of poverty, urbanization, education and regional dummies) when not available. Income poverty Early estimates of progress towards reducing income poverty come from studies conducted by the Institute of Social Studies for the Sida 2015 project (hereinafter the ISS study, Hanmer et al. 5 The World Bank has since begun publishing annual estimates of income poverty in 2015 in Global Economic Prospects.
Source: See text. 5 shows the subregional figures using the UN Population projection estimates. Rates are highest in West and Central Africa. These are both areas in which tropical diseases remain important and so have unusually high ratios of child to infant deaths. But they are also areas in which conflict has adversely affected mortality. 3). 4). Indeed, the rate of reduction in Africa has been insufficient to keep up with population growth, so the number of deaths is continuing to climb. As a result, Africa’s share of under-5 deaths is growing.
Achieving the Millennium Development Goals by Mark McGillivray (eds.)